School Admissions: 2025 Trends and 2026 Predictions

CONGRATULATIONS!

YOUR APPLICATION HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY SUBMITTED.

Each of our 100+ independent school candidates, who hail from 18 states and 13 countries, recently received this SUCCESSFULLY SUBMITTED confirmation from over 100 schools across the US, Canada, the UK and Switzerland. We anticipate guiding an additional 25-30 late (and very late!) applicants to wonderful schools for the fall of 2026.

What did we see in the 2025 season? 

  • We witnessed seismic shifts in the admissions landscape. 

What lies ahead? 

  • We anticipate schools will face further, unprecedented challenges in 2026. 

So as we do each January, we are providing what we hope is: 

1) WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – Helpful insights for our independent school colleagues.

2) WHAT PARENTS CAN DO Practical advice for families considering the transformational gift provided by a private school community – day or boarding, in Boston, New England or across the US, as well as in English-speaking schools internationally.

8 Critical Challenges Facing Independent Schools in 2026 

  1. Diminishing Domestic and International Applicants Creates K-Shaped Acceptances
  2. Rising Interest in English-speaking International Schools Means More Interest in UK, Canada and EU
  3. Tempting College-Modeled Early Decision Options Provide Illusory Triage
  4. Complex Students Need Increased Support for Learning Differences and Mental Health
  5. Obfuscated Application Platforms Dissuade Applicants
  6. Lower Enrollment Models Mean Leaner, Smaller Schools Can Thrive
  7. Political Disruption Threatens “Elite” Education
  8. Extra Personal Touch in the World of AI Becomes Critical

Before tackling these challenges one by one, we’d like to say it’s been an absolute privilege to have been entrusted by thousands of families to steer students towards the best educational settings in over 200 schools (and over 450 colleges and universities) for their children since 1955, ranging from the most selective institutions to those that specialize in arts, athletics, single-sex education, or learning differences – or a combination of the above. And we want to thank the over 150 Admissions professionals and Heads and School colleagues from all over who joined us in Boston in November of 2025 to celebrate our 70th anniversary. This spirit of collegiality carries over to the pair of receptions for the schools we work with that we host each year, right after the April 10 decision day and right before Labor Day, to trade notes and best practices on behalf of the priority we share with our friends in the school world – finding the best school for each unique student. 

As always, we also fanned out last year to visit and revisit dozens of schools in the US, and were asked at times to provide strategic advice to school leaders. We also visited campuses throughout the UK and Europe, as more of our American (and international) families are now considering English-speaking schools (and universities) outside of the US. To serve this ever widening interest in our long-time international educational planning expertise, in 2026 we’re adding schools from the UK, Canada and Switzerland to The McMillan Education Boarding School Guide, already the premier curation of unbiased information about US boarding schools. We will be releasing a complete revamp to the guide later this spring featuring more schools in the US and worldwide, more search features, and more impactful assistance for families and schools

While abroad, we also reassured skeptical international families that, despite the roadblocks set up by the current administration, school leaders in the States continue to embrace the cultural richness provided by students from around the world. 

Here in our 71st year, since we take our role as industry leaders seriously, we will continue to publish position papers and give presentations with schools at national conferences and field national and international press inquiries about the shifting admissions landscape. As a team of seasoned consultants steeped in the independent school world as former faculty, admissions leaders, senior administrative leaders, and students, we passionately pursue the goal of maximizing educational opportunities for each student. In this turbulent 2026, we consider it more critical than ever to honor Thomas Paine’s dictum: 

Amidst the Current Disruption, the Human Touch Can Convert Challenges to Opportunities 

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO  – Not since 2020 and the COVID breakout have schools had to respond to such existential and practical challenges as they will in 2026. Political, demographic, financial and mission-related disruption calls for creative and assertive leadership. Indeed, amid the advent and allure of Artificial Intelligence, we believe it will actually be fundamental human skills that can best convert these obstacles to opportunities for growth. The core liberal arts skills of creativity, innovation, critical thinking and collaboration must map out the right course through uncharted waters, just as we witnessed six years ago when many independent schools swiftly, successfully and creatively “pivoted” to make their COVID-adjusted experience more fruitful than public schools’. Our hope is further reinforced by the fact that these very liberal arts, interpersonal soft skills are what have historically defined good independent schools, and, by extension, the meaningful solutions our times demand.

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – Parents, meanwhile, need to perform their due diligence to evaluate schools on how well they are effecting positive change to meet this new set of demands. Rather than mainly relying on traditional measures like average test scores and college matriculation, parents (and we as consultants!) should consider how schools shift according to these 8 financial, political and admissions demands below.

Challenge 1 – Diminishing Domestic and International Applicants Creates K-Shaped Acceptances

In addition to the disruptive political policies, schools also must deal with a drop in the number of applicants. It’s been a demographic double whammy: Domestically, the number of teen and preteen children has dropped, while internationally, foreign applicants have been scared away due to visa restrictions, social media scrutiny, and downright unwelcome messaging from DC. 

So does the shrinking applicant pool make it easier to get accepted? Surprisingly, not necessarily. Though many schools will accept a higher percentage of applicants in 2026, some schools will remain uber-competitive.

This phenomenon can be explained by equating the current admissions landscape to the current K-shaped economic trend. A graph depicting the K-shaped economy marks how the wealthiest roughly top 10% in the country are getting wealthier – that’s the shorter arm of the K pointing up – while the bottom 90% are experiencing greater economic difficulty – that’s the longer arm of the K pointing down. We can trace a similarly shaped admissions selectivity graph on top of the economic one. A select few of Boston-area day schools, and a handful of boarding schools remain hyper-competitive, including the “The Ten Schools,” the boarding school equivalent of the Ivy League. But the vast majority of independent schools are becoming less selective. Many Boston-area day schools are seeing significant drops in applicants for lower and middle schools, and most boarding schools in the McMillan Education Boarding School Guide will see fewer applicants. It’s the same trend we’re seeing in our college practice. Just as the very most selective colleges continue to remain uber competitive – near our Boston office, MIT and Harvard hover around a 5% acceptance rate – most of the other colleges around the country have become less selective. 

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – To recruit more students away from public schools amidst declining domestic and international applicants, independent schools can: 

1) Take a page from the playbook of those who have created a consortium to share travel and marketing costs while collaborating with their “competitors.” On the day school front, about 20 Boston-area schools, historically competitive, banded together during the dark days of COVID, and have continued their collaboration through the Boston Independent School Collaborative (BISC). On the boarding front, five boarding schools converted “overlap” schools from being competitors to peers through the Mid Atlantic Boarding School consortium (MABS).

2)  Highlight their emphasis on neurodiversity, especially in serving students with ADHD, dyslexia and Executive Functioning Deficits amidst federal funding cuts for Special Education – see CHALLENGE 4 below.

3) Encourage rather than discourage applicants by simplifying rather than complicating applications – see CHALLENGE 5 below

4) Cross borders to assure international families face to face that American schools value and seek students from diverse backgrounds – see CHALLENGE 2 below.

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – Parents should be sensitive to the current selectivity bifurcation between the haves and the have nots. True, a small band of mega-select schools exists, but there are dozens of excellent schools excited to welcome your child to their campus, so cast a wide net. Additionally, parents should be hypervigilant about acceptances they receive, especially those coming before the traditional March 10 Decision Day. (See CHALLENGE 5 below about the recent spread of Early Decision tactics in the independent school world.) For each acceptance, has the school demonstrated exactly how your child can succeed in their program? 

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Don & Chris hit the road and visit King’s School in Canterbury, UK, St. Edward’s School, Dragon School, and Headington Rye School in Oxford, UK.

Challenge 2- Rising Interest in English-speaking International Schools Means More Interest in UK, Canada and EU

More families are telling us, We really like the idea of boarding school, but given the political climate in the US, we’d like you to come up with two lists – one in the US, and a second one listing schools abroad. So we’ve hit the road to research more boarding schools in the UK, Canada and Switzerland. And we’re expanding the McMillan Education Boarding School Guide so it will soon include schools in English-speaking countries such as Canada, the UK, and Switzerland. As for the UK, which for centuries has offered a wide range of schools filled with Harry Potter-esque folklore, we’ve visited schools around four academic and cultural hubs – London, Oxford, Canterbury and Bath – and hired former British Headmaster Chris Curl, who works for us out of England, to manage our families’ UK-based school searches. 

WHAT INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS CAN DO – English-speaking schools abroad can seize this moment to recruit Americans eager for safe, stable environments, while remembering that US students value, in addition to terrific curricula like the International Baccalaureate, holistic programming that includes a robust range of extracurriculars.

WHAT AMERICAN SCHOOLS CAN DO – Over the decades, our international families have responded to the in-person visits we pay them, sometimes with schools in tow, with gratitude and enthusiasm. A face-to-face coffee or family-setting conversation invariably leads to them checking out a campus, even if simply virtually. In these unsettling times, it’s more critical than ever to hit the road. We always highlight three elements when abroad: 1) the range of learners that US schools are fit to serve; 2) the breadth and flexibility of the liberal arts curriculum; 3) the incredible university outcomes. In fact, we often attract independent school applicants during the talks we give abroad about “Routes to top US Universities” – prep school provides the path!

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – Just as so many of our university-bound students have considered McGill in Montreal, Imperial and LSE in London, and English-speaking universities in Europe, so can our school families check out the cultural richness offered by international boarding schools. And as for students abroad – and we have worked with families from over 70 countries, you can take our word: in the face of the federal government’s unfriendly messaging to internationals, US schools are welcoming with open arms students from around the world to join their communities. We will continue to remind international students and American schools during our travels that our country’s educational reputation has been the envy of the world due to the global nature of our campuses. 

Challenge 3 – Tempting College-Modeled Early Decision Options Provide Illusory Triage

Faced with this type of enrollment pressure, more schools are turning to a college-style Early Decision or Early Action set of applications, where students receive their acceptances in the winter rather than the spring, and are sometimes asked to commit to a certain school before hearing from others. Traditionally, Boston-area day schools, and boarding schools across the US, have admirably coordinated to stay on a common schedule to help families – applications are submitted January 15; acceptances are released en masse on March 10; deposits indicating a family’s final choice are all due April 10. 

Are Early apps helpful for schools? No doubt – they can guarantee yield and income, since they lock in so many students early on. Who doesn’t feel flattered to get an acceptance letter? However…for college, we love this option: a 17-year-old can, towards the end of the college process, make informed decisions about leveraging the advantage of an early application, and about whether to accept the spot. Not so for the 13-year-old applying for 9th grade: Developmentally, a preadolescent needs time to reflect before making a huge decision, and choosing a school in December as opposed to the following April deprives the child of the perspective of a full search as well as several more months of maturity. Even for those schools who do give an early offer without expecting the family to commit by April 10, families, not surprisingly, treat the first acceptance as extra special, even if the school isn’t the best fit, and this rush of gratitude unfairly tilts the scale towards that initial school. In addition, the multiple rounds and application deadlines add unnecessary stress to an already overly byzantine process (see CHALLENGE 5 below). The traditional system – with common application dates in mid-January, the March 10 release of decisions, and the April 10 deadline for families to choose their ultimate school – allows for thoughtful reflection, and apples-to-apples comparisons. 

Early Applications crept in slowly – a couple of schools started the trend three or four years ago – then picked up pace this past year as enrollment pressure rose. A couple of dozen schools now offer some form of it. In reality, Early Decision/Action is a fancy name for a practice we’ve seen enrollment-challenged schools conduct for years: Rolling Admission schools accept apps anytime and can quickly convert those to acceptances, almost like pay-to-play summer schools or online schools and colleges. 

What’s next? We predict more students will transfer, since they will have made hasty decisions, akin to the wave of transfer students we saw in the college and independent school world during the COVID days, when a lack of in-person visits led to uninformed decisions.

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – For schools, we encourage them to take the long view: 1) By allowing developmentally-appropriate, thoughtful decision-making by the traditional April 10 deadline, families and students will engage in proper buy-in after exercising their due diligence in comparing acceptances. So respect the common March 10 application deadline; 2) By following best practice standards within the industry, schools will demonstrate their collaborative spirit with peer schools. And we’ve found over the years/decades that a rising tide raises all boats in the admissions world. Teamwork amongst industry peers reaps goodwill and enrollment benefits for all.  

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – For our current parents, we are encouraging them to steer clear of the temptation of early admissions dates, so that in the best interest of their child, they can learn about the decisions at the same time, benefiting from the accepted student revisit days right before April 10 before committing their two most precious possessions to a school: their money and their child.

 

            

Susanna visits Lawrenceville Academy.

Challenge 4 – Complex Students Need Increased Support for Learning Differences and Mental Health

Student mental health needs, particularly related to anxiety, have continued to increase among campuses nationwide. Teenage smartphone proliferation starting in 2010 led to what NYU Stern Professor Jonathan Haidt coined The Anxious Generation. From that year forward, social posts easily generated on smartphones exacerbated normal preadolescent and adolescent self-questioning and sparked an increase in cyberbullying. Ten years later, COVID fueled further anxiety and, for many families, the political unrest of 2025 has triggered even more angst. In our consulting work last year, parents were more involved in the school process than we have ever seen, and understandably so, given not just social media and US political unrest, but global warfare, climate threats, vaccine confusion, and episodes of racial and ethnic discrimination. 

On top of mounting anxiety, better diagnoses and less stigmatization have led to more applicants, including some of the best and the brightest, asking for learning support, especially to accommodate ADHD, Executive Functioning (EF) needs, and, sometimes, mild dyslexia. 

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – The time is right for increased support at independent schools, as the dismantling of the Education Department has gutted special education support in public schools. We encourage schools to highlight the learning support advantages they offer, not only from the trained professionals in their learning centers, but also through continuing and enhanced faculty training to more deeply meet student needs in smaller class sizes, where teachers can accommodate students much better in a class of 12 kids than the public school classes of 25 or more. Yet schools face a precarious task of hiring multifaceted faculty who have training in learning differences and mental health counseling while facing dwindling enrollment and rising inflation. In our view, the schools that are rebalancing their faculty equity towards this more hands-on care and investing in Wellness Centers, counselors, and learning specialists are making the right investments. At The Association of Boarding Schools (TABS) national conference in Boston last November, our Dr. Sarah McMillan rounded up a panel of school experts and presented to a packed room of school leaders on best practices for serving students with diverse neurocognitive and emotional needs. Clearly, there’s a need here – and a market.

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – After receiving their children’s acceptance letters, and before April 10 Deposit Day, parents should meet with the schools’ learning support leaders to review a specific plan of support. How frequently will my son see a specialist? Are some of the learning specialists integrated into the residential community to serve as peers? Are there different levels of add-on support costs? The well-deserved elation of receiving an acceptance letter should be tempered with the importance of ensuring that proper services can be provided and the comparison of your child’s options for this all-important transition to a new private school. 

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Sarah presented at TABS. Don, Jill & Bill attended EMA’s annual conference.

Challenge 5 – Obfuscated Application Platforms Dissuade Applicants

Admissions offices contend with a tough balance: they need to customize an application enough to properly vet mission-appropriate students – and also streamline the process so as not to dissuade families from applying. But we hear our parents telling us loud and clear: The school application process is much more complicated than the college process. Some of our school candidates had to juggle four different application platforms, while most of our college applicants simply fill out the single Common Application. And some of our pre-adolescent school applicants have to navigate a gauntlet of extra application essays that is relatively more imposing than the college candidates’ supplemental essays. 

As consultants, it’s our responsibility to find the right match for each student. Best practices encourage families to cast a wide net, and then narrow the list down once decisions come in. Our families, however, are removing schools from their lists DURING the search after throwing their hands up when faced with the application redundancy and confusion. What’s inherently contradictory is that schools recruit well-rounded students who are engaged in a number of activities, yet in order to commit to this range of academic and extracurricular ventures, students don’t have the extra several hours that it takes to add an additional school or two to their school list. 

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – We applaud the members of the SSAT SAO app who have removed some of the extra essays, and we hope more schools will simplify the initial inquiry form as well – a lot more is being asked before an interview is granted, and families complain they can’t go back and edit the inquiry profile they originally submitted. Likewise, kudos to schools that have broken down longer essays into shorter responses. In the future, more schools can pivot to quicker, more authentic ways for students to express themselves: a Tik-Tok length video about something you love à la Brown University.

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – When we work with families, we take stock of the big picture before students start the apps: Which schools take a more common app? Which questions can be recycled? How can we streamline the paperwork in order to spend more time talking through the pros and cons of each potential school? Plus, we want our students to have more time to devote to courses and activities – and just plain being a kid and having some rest and fun!

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Susanna & Jill visit Suffield Academy, Rachel visits Fessenden School, and Jill visits Western Reserve Academy.

Challenge 6 – Lower Enrollment Models Mean Leaner, Smaller Schools Can Thrive

With fewer domestic applicants due to the Demographic Cliff, and less of an interest from international students who feel the current administration is unwelcoming, there are only a finite number of applicants to go around. Certain schools are destined to close. We’ve already seen a handful of independent schools shut their doors, as well as many parochial schools. 

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – We encourage schools to take a page from the Higher Education playbook and look into mergers. In the college world, big fish in our backyard like Boston University have taken on small colleges like Wheelock, and outside of Philly, well-endowed Villanova University is poised to absorb tiny Rosemont College. Likewise, smaller and/or single-sex schools can consider combining forces to stay afloat. Or, for those that can do it on their own, embrace the downsizing – smaller can mean leaner and better. A tighter budget and fewer faculty and students can lead to even more teacher-student interaction and a more nurturing campus. Smaller schools will be the way of the future. 

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – Parents would be wise to seriously consider small schools. Many are in sound fiscal order, and most of them offer a wonderfully tight-knit community that can only be offered by a school that can hold an all-student meeting in a small meeting room that holds, at most, a couple hundred students. Students get more attention, and more opportunities to become a team captain, a club leader, or a STEM rock star. Plus, the more detailed teacher recommendations in smaller communities not only help with college admissions, but bear witness to how well the mentors really know their protegés. We’d encourage families to sort through this terrific collection of schools, for which our Director of School Planning, Jill Hutchins, has played an influential role over the last 25 years: Small Boarding School Association.

Challenge 7 – Political Disruption Threatens Private Education

While we DID predict last year many of the measures the new administration enacted would drastically shift the educational landscape, we DID NOT realize the PACE of the disruption would be so rapid.

The administration’s self-described attack on Higher Education, which impacted the college planning branch of McMillan Education, trickled down to the independent school world, as longstanding core principles were called into question, including social and sexual diversity, freedom of expression and thought, and international student inclusion in the heretofore global community of learners. The president’s Compact for Academic Excellence called on top universities – and by extension all institutions of “Academic Excellence” –  to set the educational standards for the country by following three basic directives:

1) Ending Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives – a hallmark of private schools for over 40 years. The Compact calls for a return to “American and Western values.”

2) Freezing tuition – in an economy where so many independent schools are struggling to make ends meet. 

3) Capping international enrollment at 15% – in an era where dozens of boarding schools boast foreign enrollment of 20% or more.

Almost all colleges solicited to agree to The Compact for Academic Excellence refused to do so. In a preview of what may yet become in the trickle-down educational policy, the Secretary of Defense has also singled out “Elite Boarding Schools” as the next group to fall under ideological, if not financial scrutiny, since they don’t rely on federal funding. In our view, the next target could be The Ten Schools – the rough equivalent to the Ivy League. As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth writes in Battle for the American Mind: Uprooting a Century of Miseducation:

We must build an entire parallel structure, while tearing down the
fake prestige of progressive cathedrals like Harvard, Princeton, and
elite high school boarding schools.

Additionally, the federal government has disincentivized the hiring of international students upon graduation, and slashed funding for special education.

WHAT SCHOOLS CAN DO – We urge schools to be proactive and intentional about the pillars that make them wonderful places of deep learning and inclusivity. We support you in fighting to maintain and even increase the level of diversity that has for decades made school communities havens for the freedom of thought and expression that comes from having students from a range of social, sexual, racial, socioeconomic and international backgrounds. We applaud The National Association of Independent Schools (NAIS) and the People of Color conference planners for scheduling their 2026 conference for December after cancelling last year’s conference, and we likewise congratulate schools for continuing to embrace diversity.

WHAT PARENTS CAN DO – When searching for the right school, keep in the forefront this finding from The Harvard Graduate School of Education: Student diversity creates great potential for classroom learning, given the different expertise and experience students bring with them. As you observe interactions among teachers and students during your campus tours, do you see a bold community that celebrates a range of student identities and viewpoints? 

Challenge 8 – Extra Personal Touch in the World of AI Becomes Critical

In fact, the teacher-as-mentor model lies at the core of independent schools. Your daughter’s science teacher also coaches her JV tennis team and advises her environmental club. This teacher serves as a character exemplar thanks to the regular formal and informal contact she has with the student. Sure, families are investing in private tuition that provides smaller classes, stunning facilities, great college placement, etc – but it’s this human touch that helps children grow as kind, curious, emerging young adults. Independent schools provide transformative experiences to children by providing tailored programming to cultivate academic and personal independence. Amidst the intoxicating attraction of Artifical Intelligence to save time and add efficiency, it’s the faculty who make schools special. Of course, we applaud schools for their commitment to STEM and innovation and robotics programs and computer labs – and their ability to integrate AI into meaningful learning and development. But as Ohio State University professor Michael Clune recently synthesized in The Atlantic:

The skills needed to thrive in an AI world might counterintuitively be exactly those that the liberal arts have long cultivated. Students must be able to ask AI questions, critically analyze its written responses, identify possible weaknesses or inaccuracies, and integrate new information with existing knowledge. The automation of routine cognitive tasks also places greater emphasis on creative human thinking. Students must be able to envision new solutions, make unexpected connections, and judge when a novel concept is likely to be fruitful. Finally, students must be comfortable and adept at grasping new concepts. This requires a flexible intelligence, driven by curiosity. Perhaps this is why the unemployment rate for recent art-history graduates is half that of recent computer-science grads.

 

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Don visits Harrow School, London. Susanna, Bill & Jill visit Miss Porter’s Fall Food Truck with Friends, and Bill visits St. Mark’s School.

About The Author

Jill Hutchins

Don McMillan, M.A., M.F.A.